It's official according to the NBER which is the agency that officially declares expansions and contractions February 2020 marks the end of the expansion that began in June 2009 and the beginning of the 2020 recession. According to the statement from the National Bureau of Economic Research The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research maintains a chronology of the peaks and troughs of U.S. business cycles. The committee has determined that a peak in monthly economic activity occurred in the U.S. economy in February 2020. The peak marks the end of the expansion that began in June 2009 and the beginning of a recession. The expansion lasted 128 months, the longest in the history of U.S. business cycles dating back to 1854. The previous record was held by the business expansion that lasted for 120 months from March 1991 to March 2001. The committee also determined that a peak in quarterly economic activity occurred in 2019Q4. Note that the monthly peak (February 2020) occurred in a different quarter (2020Q1) than the quarterly peak. The committee determined these peak dates in accord with its long-standing policy of identifying the months and quarters of peak activity separately, without requiring that the monthly peak lie in the same quarter as the quarterly peak. As we mentioned previously they typically don't mention that we have entered a recession until we are already deep into one. Another concerning point is what's happening in the US stock market as even bankrupt companies are finding a bid in this internationally exuberant atmosphere. Investor positioning is bullish at a time when waves of bankruptcies are beginning to pour in. US bankruptcies have soared over 48% to the highest level since the last recession and many retail investors though we are already well into our V-shaped recovery and have bought every dip even hertz has been surging despite being bankrupt and having it's lendors begin to liquidate their fleet of cars at below market value. Another heartbreaker to be is an announcement the energy company Chesapeake is preparing a bankruptcy filing that could hand control of the oil and gas company to its senior lenders, as in no value to existing equity, which as of the close on Thursday had a market cap of $684 million, an increase of over 425% in the past two days! This stock has traveled from $20 to $84 in a few days and they could be crushed after this company files for chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. US bankruptcies in May have reached the highest level since 2011 and major bankruptcies have reached the highest level since 2009 during the last recession. It seems the waves of bankruptcies have begun rolling in.
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It's official according to the NBER which is the agency that officially declares expansions and contractions February 2020 marks the end of the expansion that began in June 2009 and the beginning of the 2020 recession. According to the statement from the National Bureau of Economic Research The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research maintains a chronology of the peaks and troughs of U.S. business cycles. The committee has determined that a peak in monthly economic activity occurred in the U.S. economy in February 2020. The peak marks the end of the expansion that began in June 2009 and the beginning of a recession. The expansion lasted 128 months, the longest in the history of U.S. business cycles dating back to 1854. The previous record was held by the business expansion that lasted for 120 months from March 1991 to March 2001. The committee also determined that a peak in quarterly economic activity occurred in 2019Q4. Note that the monthly peak (February 2020) occurred in a different quarter (2020Q1) than the quarterly peak. The committee determined these peak dates in accord with its long-standing policy of identifying the months and quarters of peak activity separately, without requiring that the monthly peak lie in the same quarter as the quarterly peak. As we mentioned previously they typically don't mention that we have entered a recession until we are already deep into one. Another concerning point is what's happening in the US stock market as even bankrupt companies are finding a bid in this internationally exuberant atmosphere. Investor positioning is bullish at a time when waves of bankruptcies are beginning to pour in. US bankruptcies have soared over 48% to the highest level since the last recession and many retail investors though we are already well into our V-shaped recovery and have bought every dip even hertz has been surging despite being bankrupt and having it's lendors begin to liquidate their fleet of cars at below market value. Another heartbreaker to be is an announcement the energy company Chesapeake is preparing a bankruptcy filing that could hand control of the oil and gas company to its senior lenders, as in no value to existing equity, which as of the close on Thursday had a market cap of $684 million, an increase of over 425% in the past two days! This stock has traveled from $20 to $84 in a few days and they could be crushed after this company files for chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. US bankruptcies in May have reached the highest level since 2011 and major bankruptcies have reached the highest level since 2009 during the last recession. It seems the waves of bankruptcies have begun rolling in.
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